Texas–Mexico automotive corridor
The corridor moved.
Most site strategies haven't.
Between 2012 and 2022, Texas and the four northern Mexican states went from 6.2% of North American light-vehicle assembly to 10.2% — the largest gain on the continent. We work out what that shift actually demands of the companies and agencies acting on it.
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What we do
Knowing the corridor and being able to operate in it are different problems.
We advise three kinds of client off one evidence base. The questions differ; the facts do not.
Market entry & site strategy
For suppliers placing a first or second footprint in the corridor. Site screening, the practical shape of an incentive negotiation, USMCA content design, and finding the local partners who actually deliver.
- Site comparison with real power and water diligence
- State, county and municipal incentive structure
- Tier 1 and Tier 2 connection mapping
Corridor intelligence & diligence
For investors and corporate strategy teams. We test the assumptions inside a deal and show where published statistics and operating reality diverge. Available as a recurring corridor briefing.
- Pre-entry and pre-acquisition assumption testing
- Supplier base verification on the ground
- Quarterly corridor movement briefings
Cluster strategy & investment attraction
For counties, chambers and economic development organisations. Honest competitiveness assessment, a ranked target list, and pitch material written for the people who actually make siting decisions.
- Benchmarking against the regions you lose to
- Ranked and reasoned target lists
- Material written for the decision-maker, not the press release
For Japanese manufacturers
The gap for Japanese entrants is rarely information. It is resolution.
Japanese OEMs account for roughly three in ten vehicles built in North America, and their centre of gravity keeps moving south. Yet most published corridor material stops at the state or national aggregate — never reaching the resolution a decision needs: the power capacity of one specific site, the real dwell time at one specific crossing, whether a named Tier 2 can hold tolerance. We work at that resolution, in Japanese or English, with no loss of precision between them.
Where assembly share moved
Share of North American light-vehicle production, 2012 → 2022
Figures from public-record reporting by Bexar County / Macro Foresight, March 2024. Chart and interpretation by TXMX Automotive.
Latest analysis
The corridor's EV question is a cell question, not an assembly question
Add up every cell plant announced in North America and the total still falls roughly 653 GWh short of what 2040 demand implies. That shortfall, not incentive packages, decides which regions win EV assembly.
How we engage
Short, bounded, checkable pieces of work.
We prefer to start with a two-week bounded scope: pick the one question that is actually blocking a decision, and answer it. If the working relationship holds, it extends. Nothing here requires beginning with an annual retainer.